Post-halving, Bitcoin miners may have the potential to sell off $5 billion worth of BTC.

Market analysts are anticipating that miners will sell approximately $5 billion worth of Bitcoin following the upcoming halving, a pattern that has been observed in previous cycles. Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, estimates that this selling pressure could persist for four to six months, resulting in Bitcoin remaining relatively stagnant during that period. Thielen believes that this trend may recur, creating a “summer lull” in the crypto markets. Following the 2020 halving, Bitcoin prices remained within the range of $9,000 to $11,500 for five months. This year’s halving is expected to occur around April 20, and if history repeats itself, the markets may not experience a significant upward trend until around October. Thielen also noted that miners tend to accumulate BTC leading up to the halving, causing a supply/demand imbalance and subsequent price rally. This phenomenon has already been observed, with Bitcoin reaching a record high of $73,734 on March 14 before declining below $63,000 in mid-April. Thielen further highlighted the impact on altcoins, which have declined from their peak values in 2021. He referenced historical evidence indicating that an altcoin rally typically begins around six months after the halving. In terms of specific mining operations, Thielen mentioned that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has amassed an inventory that will be gradually sold post-halving to prevent a sharp drop in revenue. Marathon currently mines approximately 28-30 BTC per day, and after the halving, this could add up to an additional 133 days of supply to the market, with a continued production of 14-15 BTC per day. If all miners adopt a similar strategy, Thielen estimates that the market could see up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin being sold each day post-halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance that has driven the recent price rally. The halving, which will reduce the daily Bitcoin payout for miners from 900 to 450, could result in revenue losses of around $10 billion per year for the industry as a whole. In response to this, Marathon Digital Holdings, CleanSpark, and other miners have invested in new equipment and sought to acquire smaller competitors to offset revenue declines. The strategic response of each miner in adapting to these changes will determine their success in the industry. Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has stated that the company’s break-even rate for profitability after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, assuming no significant price changes in the six months following the event. Analysts remain optimistic about the future of Bitcoin, expecting a prolonged bull market to follow the halving, despite potential short-term volatility. They also believe that the flow of ETFs will continue to have a significant impact on the market dynamics, as investors seek to benefit from the positive effect that the halving tends to have on Bitcoin’s price.