Jan. 15 anticipated as the date for Polymarket investors’ optimistic approval of Bitcoin ETF
Traders on a popular platform are placing their bets on the likelihood of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Bitcoin ETFs by mid-January. According to the platform, there is a 90% chance of approval, while a minority of traders are hedging against the opposite outcome.
The demand for a Bitcoin ETF approval is evident on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction venue, where shares of a “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” contract are trading at 90 cents. At present, the contract has attracted bets worth $441,315, with only 10% of traders betting against it. However, these traders have admitted that their opposing choice is a way to hedge their bets and potentially make a profit if the SEC decides to delay beyond Jan. 15.
While there is speculation surrounding when the SEC will make a decision on spot Bitcoin ETFs, Reuters reported that approvals could be announced as early as Jan. 3 for 14 issuers to list their products in the coming weeks. However, Fox journalist Eleanor Terrett believes this is unlikely due to ongoing reviews of updated S-1 filings from firms like Hashdex and VanEck.
Although the exact date of the SEC’s decision is unknown, experts and crypto proponents are optimistic about a potential outcome on Jan. 10. This date coincides with the deadline for a joint submission by ARK 21Shares. Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, also shares this belief and sees a decision happening by this date. Wood thinks that an approval would be a significant endorsement of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies by Wall Street, a sentiment that is shared by MicroStrategy founder and Bitcoin maximalist Michael Saylor.
In conclusion, traders are actively speculating on the possibility of the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs by mid-January, with the majority betting in favor of approval. While the exact timing of the decision remains uncertain, there is optimism among experts and industry figures for a positive outcome, potentially on Jan. 10.
