Bloomberg analyst predicts 35% likelihood of Ethereum ETF approval before May
Uncertainty surrounds the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by May, according to experts. Eric Balchunas, an ETF expert at Bloomberg, stated that the chances of spot Ethereum ETF applications being accepted by May are less than 50%, as there are no clear indications, as there were with spot Bitcoin ETFs in January. Previously, analysts had predicted a 60% to 70% chance of approval by May. Eleanor Terrett from Fox also shared this view, highlighting that the US SEC has not engaged with issuers as it did with spot BTC ETF bids last year.
Jake Chervinsky, the chief legal officer at Variant Fund, expressed similar opinions in a thread on March 11. He suggested that the SEC could find new reasons for denial that were not previously established during the Grayscale court case. Chervinsky also believed that the SEC may reconsider its position on the correlation between spot and futures markets and insist that futures products provide adequate exposure to crypto assets, despite the Grayscale ruling. He argued that the August 2023 verdict was not an absolute judgment, giving the SEC room to use similar tactics with new justifications.
Issuers of spot Ethereum ETFs are currently in a state of uncertainty. The commission led by Gary Gensler previously held consistent discussions with spot BTC ETF applications within 90 days of the deadline to approve or disapprove. However, the 90-day window for spot Ethereum ETFs began around February 23, and the SEC has instead postponed decisions on multiple bids until May, without providing any feedback to issuers regarding filing details.
According to sources mentioned by Reuters and cited by Crypto.news, possible meetings have taken place between the SEC and issuers for spot Ethereum ETFs this month. Coinbase has also called on the securities regulator to approve Grayscale’s bid to convert its Ethereum Trust into an ETF, considering it a necessary step.
