Bitfinex predicts Bitcoin to hover close to $20,000 in ongoing cycle

Bitcoin (
BTC
) is poised to maintain its value above the $20,000 threshold in the current cycle, according to analysts at Bitfinex. These experts have observed a surge in buying activity from long-term holders since February 2023, when BTC was trading at over $24,000. With Bitcoin’s current trading price hovering around $70,600, the analysts emphasize the importance of the short-term holder realized price, which currently stands at $55,834. This price level serves as a crucial support and resistance level throughout the current cycle.
The analysts anticipate that any decline to $56,000 would align with the maximum downturn from a new local high to the bottom, which is estimated to be around 23-24%.
In their research report, Bitfinex also highlights recent data from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (
ETFs
), indicating net negative flows for the first time last week. Each trading day recorded a net negative flow, with total outflows surpassing $2 billion. These outflows were primarily from the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF. However, after considering inflows from other ETFs, the net outflow amounted to $896 million.
Despite this shift to negative ETF flows, the analysts at Bitfinex do not see it as a cause for significant concern. They attribute the outflows to investors transitioning their funds from GBTC to other ETF providers that offer lower and more attractive management fees.