Bitcoin’s future value forecast:
Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop of 8% on March 15, falling from its all-time high of $73,805 to a weekly low of $66,786. Market data trends suggest that whale investors could potentially trigger an early rebound in BTC.
The dip in Bitcoin’s price on March 15 seems to have been caused by overheated bull trading. Over the past 60 days, since the approval of ETFs, the BTC price has seen a remarkable 75% rally, reaching its peak on March 15. During this period, bullish traders took on highly leveraged positions to amplify their gains.
The funding rates for Bitcoin futures markets, which are the perpetual futures contract fees paid by leveraged long traders to short position holders, have remained elevated at an average of 0.05% since the beginning of March. This prolonged period of high funding rates exposed bull traders to margin calls and massive liquidations, leading to the sudden 8% price decrease on March 15.
According to aggregate derivatives market data compiled by Coinglass, over $122 million worth of BTC long contracts were liquidated within the last 24 hours on March 15. This resulted in a cascade of forced spot BTC asset sales, as they were used as collateral for the liquidated leveraged positions. Consequently, Bitcoin experienced its largest single-day loss since the start of 2024.
Despite the price dip, institutional investors continue to rapidly purchase Bitcoin. Whale wallets, which hold at least 10 BTC ($700,000), have seen their cumulative balances increase from 16.08 million BTC at the start of March 2024 to 16.12 million BTC on March 15. This indicates that whales have acquired 40,000 BTC, worth approximately $27 billion at current prices. Notably, this acquisition in the first half of March is already equal to the total accumulation in February and January combined. Furthermore, whales now control more than 83% of the total Bitcoin supply in circulation.
Considering the buying trend of institutional investors, it is likely that retail investors and speculative swing traders will follow suit, setting the stage for an early price rebound. However, in the short term, it is crucial for the bulls to prevent a downward swing below the $65,000 support level. Failing to do so could trigger another wave of margin calls and liquidations.
Overall, given the strong demand for BTC and no major shifts in market sentiment or macroeconomic indicators, there is a fair chance for an early rebound in Bitcoin’s price, with higher targets potentially reaching $80,000.
