As the SEC’s ETF deadline approaches, there is a significant surge in Bitcoin futures and implied volatility.
Bitcoin’s price has surged to short-term highs of $45,000, reflecting a strong market sentiment expecting the ETF to pass, according to analysis from GreeksLive. The trading analytics platform highlights the increasing implied volatility (IV) in the options market, indicating market expectations and uncertainty. The IV for the at-the-money (ATM) option expiring on Jan. 12 has reached 110%, while the IV for the 11th has surpassed 120%. This significant rise in IV, nearly 20% following recent deliveries, shows the market’s heightened anticipation. The increase in IV suggests a growing expectation of volatility in the Bitcoin market and reflects traders’ adjustments to their estimates of future price movements. This surge in implied volatility underscores the market’s anticipation and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Bitcoin Spot ETF review.
Additionally, there is a notable fear of missing out sentiment in U.S. and European markets as investors speculate on the imminent approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF. The deadline for ETF applications to the SEC has passed, with only HashDex remaining pending for a last-minute filing. Other notable issuers, including Grayscale, ARK 21Shares, Blackrock, BitWise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, and Valkyrie, have completed their submissions. Now, investors and analysts anxiously await the SEC’s decision, as the market teeters on the edge of this potential breakthrough.
