Anticipating BTC halving, GBTC ETF experiences unprecedented decrease in outflows

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), an ETF, has seen a significant decrease in outflows, reaching a new record low that was almost 90% lower than the previous day.
This shift coincided with Bitcoin’s price rebound after the release of the latest US inflation data, which caused volatility in the market.
Based on data from Farside, GBTC experienced outflows of $17.5 million on April 10, in stark contrast to the $154.9 million recorded on April 9.
According to CoinMarketCap, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 2.08% in the last 24 hours and is now valued at $70,542. This increase followed a dip to local lows of $67,482 after the March US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated a higher-than-expected 3.5% year-on-year increase. This raised concerns that the US Federal Reserve might further postpone interest rate cuts.
Crypto industry experts are optimistic that the slowdown in GBTC outflows, which have totaled $16 billion since the fund transitioned to a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, may be starting.
On April 11, Thomas Fahrer, CEO of the crypto-focused reviews portal Apollo, asked his 41,500 followers if “GBTC selling [is] over?” He noted that the outflows on April 10 were equivalent to about 250 Bitcoin, almost a 95% drop from the beginning of the week.
Just days before on April 8, Grayscale saw outflows of 4,288 Bitcoin, totaling $303 million.
The previous lowest outflow was on February 26, amounting to $22.4 million, with the average daily outflow over four months being $257.8 million.
According to data from Farside, among BTC ETFs, which include BlackRock IBIT, Fidelity FBTC, ARK’s ARKB, and Bitwise BITB, only these registered positive inflows on April 10.
FBTC led with an inflow of $76.3 million, its largest since April 5, bringing its total inflows to $8,043.2 billion. The collective net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs now stand at $12,494.5 billion.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving, expected around April 20, is another focal point for the market. The event will cut the Bitcoin block issuance rate from 6.25 coins per block to 3.125.
Halvings, which occur every four years, have historically led to a surge in Bitcoin’s price due to the reduced supply growth.
With the current excitement around spot Bitcoin ETFs, the market expects even greater demand, potentially intensifying the rally.
In an interview with Bloomberg on April 9, Fred Thiel, CEO of Bitcoin mining firm Marathon Digital, suggested that recent spot Bitcoin ETF approvals have brought significant capital into the market, thereby accelerating the market’s appreciation, which was typically expected after the Bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin’s price has increased by more than 60% in the months leading up to the halving, with experts indicating a continued bullish market driven mainly by growing demand rather than the halving’s supply cut.
Andras Kristof, CEO and co-founder of Galaxis, told Crypto.news that “The past halvings have caused a remarkable supply shock, but this year’s event will be different. This is because we’ve never had both a supply shock and a demand shock at the same time. And the catalyst is undoubtedly ETFs – single-day inflows into spot BTC ETFs have already exceeded $1 billion.” He went on to suggest that if the demand for the new ETFs remains strong, it will only add to the daily buying pressure. Combined with the reduction in supply, this could result in a significant spike in the price and volatility of bitcoin.
“While the price of Bitcoin has more than doubled in the past year, there is still momentum in the rally. The halving effect will most likely attract institutional investors who fear missing out,” he added.